Right now all eyes are on the European Union because of Brexit, Britain exit from the EU. A few days ago Britain called for a Brexit extension until June 30, 2019. This was a big blow for many who voted to leave the European Union. This vote was a democratic vote that took place in the United Kingdom on June 23, 2016.
Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. This vote took place because the country was frustrated with the unfairness that has been going on for quite some time. Specially because of the European Refugee Crisis that took place in 2015 alongside the many incidents that fired up England wanting to leave the EU. This was a wake up call for many in the European Union, especially the European Parliament.
England then triggered Article 50 from the Treaty of the European Union (TEU) which states, “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.” Then all that the European Union asked of England is to pay €60 billion for the divorce bill that will also include laws and projects that England has already committed to in all of Europe. Since mid 2016 there has been two things holding up Brexit which are, 1. a major debate between England and the European Union on how much to pay for the divorce bill and 2. an agreeable trade bill for both parties.
In my opinion the amount of €60 billion for the divorce bill or €30 billion is not a big deal. The United Kingdom has a population of 66.04 million people and for each citizen for example were to contribute to the payment €200.00 each citizen that would amount to around €13.2 billion. If the barons, lords, and businesses would make a charitable contribution to it that would be another couple billion there. The payment is doable or it could be financed.
As for the trade agreement between England and the European Union in my humble opinion would have been a done deal, but intermediaries/special interest groups keep making things complicated. In the United Kingdom, Brexit means to many at the top specially major businesses they are going to lose allot of money because of trade.
To make matters worse because of the prolonged drama free process which has been ongoing…… lol…. The majority in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales do not want to leave the European Union according to a recent poll. They would rather break away from the United Kingdom and it would be just England on the brexit train. Then the talk of a hard brexit if it were to be implemented would mean all contracts, laws, treaties with the European Union and including many individual interconnected (contracts, laws, treaties) between England and member states in the EU those ones would be effected too. Alongside not paying for the divorce bill means in terms of the law the European Union would have rights over the United Kingdom. So paying to leave is important.
I have two suggestions for the EU Parliament before everyone goes more bonkers on the floor and the negotiating table just like how it went with Facebook and the roof caved in. First suggestion is that the United Kingdom does a hard exit and pay the divorce bill (negotiated lower amount if possible) without a trade agreement. Then England on their side make preparations to sustain themselves. My second suggestion would be for Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales to unite. For Wales to lead the United Kingdom instead of England. Thus the United Kingdom stays in the European Union and England exits the EU. Then England makes a trade agreement with the United Kingdom and can only trade with them. Thus this would prevent hardship on the crown and prevent Scotland and specially Northern Ireland from breaking away from the United Kingdom.
I believe for England to stay in the EU would be hazardous specially due to recent events. It would open the door for the same situation to come back haunting Europe. It would be another matter if there was understanding across the board in England to fully understand the repercussions of leaving the EU what it really means. The sooner that this gets nipped in the bud, the better for everyone.
As for things in France and the call for a Frexit is not the way to go for them. It would only make matters worse in France specially for the most vulnerable. As well as for Hungary. The way to go for all of Europe is unity and for there to be the continual reformation. Specially with a special focus on the development of Eastern Europe.
Each member state there needs to be a special focus on from within the city legislative to regional to do their part for the people. They need to also carry the weight of governance and for them to stop blaming all their problems on the EU when it is their responsibility and job to get things done for those who voted for them. The same is true in the United States. City councils, mayors, and governors of the 50 states – There are things that can be solved locally and regional. Yet again many blame the federal government. Texas is a great example how business should be taken care off. If Texas were to break away from the United States it can sustain itself.
Due to the economies of the United States, China, and many more for all the member states to break away from the European Union would be a mistake. Unless they are all ready to sustain themselves. Which many are not ready and would push Europe backwards specially relationship wise and economically.
This matter with President Macron, I am saddened when I read about the Yellow Vest movement happen all over France that it has not gotten resolved. Many in France have called for his resignation. President Macron has refused to resign instead he send the goon squad against his own people. He is not doing right with the people of France on many things. I believe France (Ne cédera pas) will not give in until President Macron steps down. We are not talking a couple hundred people protesting. We are talking about thousands of French citizens protesting in the streets. Something not seen since the French revolution (without the guillotines). Marine Le Pen, I am a big fan of hers and hope that she wins the upcoming Presidential race.
The Refugee Crisis
The refugee crises in Syria, Afghanistan and South Sudan have displaced more than 11 million people who been forced to flee their own countries. Many refugees have suffered unimaginable loss, whether they are displaced in their own country or seeking safety overseas. What does not help is that terror organizations and extremist have weaponized this crisis to their advantage.
We are also taking a culture clash in Europe. I believe that it is important for each nation state to heavily invest in education specially on the refugee’s on those wanting to learn the language and culture of each member state of Europe. For those who do not want to integrate into the way of life of Europeans, something may have to be done. If this approach is not taken it will only anger many Europeans even more due to the many incidents specially the raping incidents from refugees. It will also put more fire for the member states to break away from the EU.
To conclude my political analysis of Europe at this time. I want to applaud the European Parliament and the many hard working representatives in the EU on its recent reformation. As well as for the tremendous advancements and reforms you have made that will advance Europe as a whole.